Submarines with unarmed missiles are not a credible deterrent to any nuclear threat - and potential aggressors know it
Sir, We feel moved to agree with Baroness Falkner of Margravine, the co-chair of the Liberal Democrat backbench international affairs committee, that a UK nuclear posture based on deploying submarines with unarmed missiles does not constitute a credible deterrent capability.
The UK’s current posture of continuous at-sea deterrence means that it is ready to respond instantly to any nuclear threat, and any potential aggressor knows this to be the case. Unarmed missiles clearly do not provide such deterrence.
The Liberal Democrat policy endorsed at their party conference seems to assume that the UK would be given enough advance notice of a crisis to bring its warheads out of storage, while its enemies waited. Then, in the middle of an international crisis, the UK would put nuclear armed missiles on its submarines, in full view of whichever adversary we were facing, a move which would surely be seen as a dangerous escalation and which could provoke a pre-emptive strike against us. This is not nuclear deterrence, but a reckless gamble with the UK’s national security driven by a Lib Dem desire to scupper Trident at any cost.
If the UK is serious about nuclear deterrence, it must do it properly, and if the Lib Dems want a policy of unilateral disarmament, they should come out and say so rather than hiding behind various hare-brained schemes for a part-time deterrent, which in reality is no deterrent at all.
Lord Robertson of Port Ellen, former Secretary of State for Defence and Secretary-General of Nato
Lord Hutton of Furness, former Secretary of State for Defence
Dr Liam Fox, MP, former Secretary of State for Defence
Admiral the Lord Boyce, former Chief of Defence Staff
General Sir Michael Jackson, former Chief of the General Staff
Bernard Jenkin, MP
John Woodcock, MP
Lord Moonie, Former Defence Minister
Admiral the Lord West of Spithead, former First Sea Lord and Home Office Security Minister
Julian Lewis MP
Professor Sir David Omand, former Permanent Under Secretary at the Home Office
Sir Kevin Tebbit, former Permanent Under Secretary, Ministry of Defence
Sir Keith O’Nions, Former Chief Scientific Advisor, Ministry of Defence
Professor Paul Cornish, Strategy and Security Institute, University of Exeter
Dr David Fisher, Department of War Studies, King’s College London Commodore Tim Hare RN
Former Director Nuclear Policy MOD 1999-2002
Lord Ashdown of Norton-sub-Hamdon voted in favour of the plan, which was debated at the Lib Dem conference in Glasgow.
“Trident was invented for the Cold War. The Cold War is long over,” he said. “The threat to the future is not nuclear obliteration but weapons of mass destruction. This is a sensible step which maintains our nuclear deterrent and takes an important step towards a nuclear free world.”
Taking aim at the letter-writers, Lord Ashdown added: “Heavens, we must have done well at our conference if this collection of hoary old war horses from the past come together for change designed to take us back to a better Cold War yesterday”.
The future of the nuclear deterrent is a divisive issue within the coalition government. Conservatives are strongly in favour of a like-for-like replacement of the UK’s four submarines, armed with Trident ballistic missiles at a cost of between £20 billion and £25 billion. The Lib Dems forced their partners to conduct a review on the alternatives, which found that the country could save £1.7 billion by reducing the size of the fleet to three submarines.
“If the UK is serious about nuclear deterrence, it must do it properly, and if the Lib Dems want a policy of unilateral disarmament, they should come out and say so rather than hiding behind various hare-brained schemes for a part-time deterrent, which in reality is no deterrent at all,” the former officials and serving MPs wrote in a letter to The Times.
The letter’s authors said: “The UK’s current posture of continuous at-sea deterrence means that the UK is ready to respond instantly to any nuclear threat, and any potential aggressor knows this to be the case. Unarmed missiles clearly do not provide such deterrence.”
They noted that any move to arm the missiles with nuclear warheads at a time of an international crisis would surely be seen as a dangerous escalation and could provoke a pre-emptive strike.
“This is not nuclear deterrence, but a reckless gamble with the UK’s national security driven by a Lib Dem desire to scupper Trident at any cost, even though the Lib Dem-led Cabinet Office review into ‘alternatives to Trident’ found that Trident was the only realistic option remaining for the UK.”
Philip Hammond, the current Defence Secretary, was also damning of the Lib Dem policy.
“I’ve previously attacked the Liberal Democrats for proposing a part-time deterrent, but having seen their latest policy it is clear I was wrong; their policy of occasionally putting submarines to sea with unarmed missiles is no deterrent at all.” he said.
The full list of signatories is: Lord Robertson of Port Ellen, Lord Hutton of Furness, Lord Moonie, Admiral the Lord Boyce, Admiral the Lord West of Spithead, General Sir Michael Jackson, Liam Fox MP, Bernard Jenkin MP, Julian Lewis MP, John Woodcock MP, Professor Sir David Omand, Sir Kevin Tebbit, Sir Keith O’Nions, Professor Paul Cornish, Dr David Fisher, Commodore Tim Hare RN.