In the last few weeks, I have visited the US and the Gulf as chairman of the UK Abraham Accords group, formed to help promote peace and security in the Middle East. The initiative is designed to build on the agreement brokered by President Trump and now supported by the Biden administration.
Today I will be giving a speech in Budapest about the security concerns that are faced in this part of Europe — especially the threat faced by Ukraine from the gangster regime that masquerades as the government of Russia. Tensions are high and the UK and US governments have been clear and consistent in their messaging to the Kremlin.
In each of the locations I have visited I have encountered puzzlement, if not bafflement, about the saturation coverage in the British media about the issue of whether or not drinks parties were held in Downing Street during the pandemic lockdown.
It is not that they don’t understand the gravity of the accusations or how rightly angry the British public are about why their own (sometimes bitter) sacrifices were not reflected at the heart of their own government who wrote the rules.
I fully share these feelings as I was, for example, not able to see my own parents who are in their eighties for nearly 18 months.
But the worry they expressed was that Britain, through the British government, may be taking its eye off some fairly significant balls internationally. There is certainly no shortage of challenges to address.
Global inflation is taking off, especially in Europe and the US where it may reach double figures. The impact on a generation that has never known the horrors of inflation and which has become used to historically low interest rates is hard to fathom.
What is certain is that, as always, inflation will hit the poorest the hardest. Globally, rising interest rates in the US could result in capital movements that will disadvantage poorer and developing countries just as they are starting to recover from the pandemic.
The disruption in global trade and the potential downturn in demand from richer countries as rising interest rates take effect will make their task more difficult. Whether we will see potential debt default is an issue being discussed more widely than for some time.
The disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan has emboldened the enemies of the West with Chinese and North Korean missile tests being accompanied by increased malign activity by Iran. Russia, with its increased power over Germany (and by extension much of Europe) through the ill-considered Nord Stream 2 project is once again flexing its muscles.
Putin’s use of the KGB playbook tool of reflexive control is in threatening military mode. All of this is worth pointing out because it will need the combined concentration of different parts of our government to work with each other and our allies to deal successfully with these issues.
None of us know what the result of the Sue Gray investigation will produce or what political consequences will follow but it does seem suboptimal, to say the least, if we have a three-month Conservative leadership campaign that becomes the main focus for the chancellor, the foreign secretary, the home secretary and a host of others at such a time.
We need our government to focus relentlessly on the tasks in hand. Yes, there must be change in the aftermath of all of this. No 10 needs both a new culture and new structures so that it operates efficiently and effectively but a prolonged bout of internal division and navel gazing should be avoided if possible — at least in the near to medium term.
As they look not only at public opinion at home but at the challenges outside, my fellow Conservative MPs would be wise to retain a sense of perspective.