The beheading of an innocent British aid worker by a knife wielding British jihadist rams home a number of horrible truths. The first is that the cancer of Islamist fundamentalism knows no borders. The second is that the fanatics of ISIS do not differentiate between their victims. Their excuse that their latest depravity was a result of the decision by the British Parliament to use air strikes is an obscenity. The last British hostage to be brutally murdered came at a time when Britain was dropping humanitarian aid to the region. The penny must drop in liberal parts of western society that there are those out there who hate us, not because of what we are doing, but because of who we are – our values, our way of life and ISIS have declared war on the civilised world. They must be defeated, and it will require using every tool in our armoury – diplomatic, ideological, financial, military and political.
ISIS are well funded. Money has been flowing from rich individuals in the Gulf states, if not their governments, to finance them and their Sunni allies in their battle against the Assad regime in Syria, where up to three quarters of the population are Sunni Muslims. It is estimated that they have total funding worth up to $2 billion. When the northern Iraqi city of Mosul fell, ISIS looted more than $420 million from the central bank. That is enough to pay 60,000 fighters for a whole year at $600 a month (it is estimated that they have around 10,000 fighters at the moment). While they might use some of the money to buy complex military equipment they already have substantial US weapons and vehicles seized during the fall of the city. Money also comes from the sale of oil from the refineries under their control but best estimates suggest that this is only around 80,000 barrels a day and is being sold at a huge discount only $25 a barrel or less. A great deal of the money is used to subsidise bread, water and fuel and maintain the operation of basic public services in the areas under the control. This is what buys the acquiescence, if not the goodwill, of many of the Sunni tribes in the areas under their control. It is these tribes who may hold the key to the defeat of ISIS. These groups suffered from indifference or discrimination under the Maliki government, feel alienated and disenfranchised and are currently unlikely to trust the new Iraqi administration. Yet with ISIS closing in on the outskirts of Baghdad, getting these groups to actively join with the military activity of the coalition will be essential to victory, for if ISIS enter the suburbs of Baghdad , a truly nightmare picture will emerge. Their continuing advance towards the Iraqi capital shows their continuing strength, despite air strikes against them. The West has been much too slow to react. For air strikes to have had their maximal effect they should have been deployed a long time ago. A political deal, creating an Iraqi federal state, with an autonomous Sunni region, now seems one of the few opportunities still available. Effectively, the coalition of Arab states and the Western powers may be forced to accept this as a quid pro quo for the military support of the united Sunni tribes to drive out ISIS. There cannot be victory against them without victory on the ground. If Western powers are not willing to put their own troops on the ground, then they will have to properly support those who have the military capability there already . This will require political momentum and a guarantee to the Sunni population of Al Anbar province that they will not be abandoned for a second time. Politicians in the international community may not like the establishment of a federal structure for Iraq, with all the international ramifications that it may bring, but unless there is political momentum there is a real danger that Baghdad may fall, with a quantum leap in the level of violence and the danger of international contagion. There are those who say that this will conflict is about Muslims killing Muslims because they are the wrong sort of Muslim and that they should be left to their own devices. In the era of globalisation and Internet, this is a dangerous fantasy. If they are not defeated, the jihadists will strengthen, grow and spread and some of their British adherents will come back to infect the United Kingdom. We need to understand that it is either us or them, and quickly.